IDC Forecasts Boom in Smartphone Shipments

IDC forecasts boom in smartphone shipments. The latest IDC prediction on the smartphone is painting an optimistic picture. Based on the gathered data, IDC is forecasting 1.38 billion smartphone shipments for 2021 which would be a 7.7% increase compared to last year and the highest total since 2015. The upward trend is also expected to continue into 2022 but with a more modest 3.8% annual growth.

IDC Forecasts Boom in Smartphone Shipments

IDC believes the wide-scale deployment of 5G networks paired with the lowered cost of 5G phones will lead to a triple-digit percentage increase in 5G phone shipments by the end of this year. China is expected to be the driving force behind the increased shipments with nearly half of all 5G smartphone sales. The US is expected to be a distant second with a 16% market share.

The average selling price (ASP) of 5G Android phones is predicted to drop to $456 which is a 12% decrease compared to the ASP in 2020. The number is expected to drop to $400 by 2022.

Markets worldwide continue to migrate toward 5G, where networks are deployed. Within emerging markets, there is strong demand for mid-range and low-end 4G phones following last year’s pandemic slowdown. Looking toward the later years in the forecast, IDC expects low single-digit growth to continue through 2025 with a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.7%. The global semiconductor shortage remains a concern for many industries and the smartphone market has not been excluded from this. However, the impact has been far less than in other markets like automotive, PC, and various consumer tech categories.

With 5G shipments expected to grow nearly 130% in 2021, almost all regions outside of China will see triple-digit growth by the end of this year. However, in terms of market share, China will lead the way with a nearly 50% share of 5G shipments in 2021 while the US will follow with a 16% share. Other significant markets such as Western Europe and Asia/Pacific (excluding China and Japan) will combine for a 23.1% share of the worldwide 5G market by the end of 2021.

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